Forecasting habitat and connectivity for pronghorn across the Great Basin ecoregion

Aims In the sagebrush ecosystems of western United States, identifying and enhancing habitat for large ungulates has become an increased priority many management agencies, as indicated by Department Interior Secretarial Order 3362. Estimating understanding current future suitability connectivity is important successful long-term these species. Location Great Basin ecoregion, USA. Methods We focussed on pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in ecoregion used a variety data sources (GPS telemetry, aerial surveys, observation locations) to develop multi-scale ensemble models two time steps (years 2050 2070). also developed dynamic resistant kernels model connectivity. combined outputs derive quantify changes networks through well identify areas that are resilient climate land use change. Results observed 33.4% decline highly suitable 2070, assuming high carbon emission scenario. Patches reduced number size, whilst distance amongst patches increased, indicating elevated importance future. Future decreased greater degree than (47.2%–80.0%, depending movement threshold used). found (70%) be more change (10%–15%). Main conclusions Our results show loss high-quality with projected Connectivity was sensitive habitat, may limiting factor populations Basin. These can help managers prioritize resource investments conservation efforts most likely towards conservation.